S&P500 index has decreased by -8,27% in June from 4131,25 down to 3789,50. The year-to-date decline accounted for 20,82%, which is the anti-record since 1970. The big tech index NASDAQ100 has decreased by -28,79% since the beginning of 2022, also the word result in the last 50 years.
Sector dynamics in the SP500 index for the first half of 2022
- DXY index increased by 2,65% — from 101,77 to 104.
- The cost of a 5-year credit default swap (CDS) in the US surged by 16.01% in June, the figure at the end of the month was 18.84. The assumed probability of default is 0.32%.
- The interest rate on federal funds is 1.50–1.75% (prev. 0.75–1.00%).
- The latest data on inflation and the labor market increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike at the July meeting by 0.75-1.00%.
- The market expects the rate to rise by 0.75-1.00% in July, by 0.50-0.75% in September, and in total up to 3.75-4.00% by the end of the year.
Key economic indicators
- Consumer Price Index (CPI:) 9.1% y/y (previous: 8.6%);
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): 5.9% y/y (prev: 6.0%);
- Producer price index (PPI): 1.1% m/m (previous: 8.6%);
- Core Producer Price Index (PPI): 0.4% m/m (previous: 0.6%).
US Consumer Price Index, YoY
- The number of new jobs amounted to 372k (forecast – 268k, in May – 384k);
- The number of new jobs in the private sector amounted to 381k (forecast – 240k, in May – 336k);
- The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.6%.
The Fed’s balance sheet has declined from its maximum level by 0.82% ($73.636 billion) since April.
US FED balance
The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries inverted: -0.19%.
Yield spread of 10- and 2-year US Treasuries
Market expectations for inflation in the US Treasury market
US spending on government debt from October 2021 to May 2020 amounted to $711 billion – this is 30% more than a year earlier, WSJ reported. At the same time, the annual federal budget deficit decreased by 79% over the same period, as other federal spending decreased and tax revenues increased.
The euro exchange rate for the first time in 20 years fell to parity with the US currency.
European shares for the first half of the year showed the worst dynamics since 2008.
Dynamics of the Stoxx 600 European Equity Index
The ECB raised rates by 0.50 percentage points in July.
Eurozone inflation hit new records.
- PPI (industrial inflation): +36.3% y/y (previous +37.2%);
- CPI (consumer inflation): +8.6% y/y (previous +8.1%);
Eurozone inflation: 8.6% in June
Bloomberg predicts that inflation in the main economies of the eurozone will decline at the end of 2022.
Eurozone inflation forecast until 2023
Bloomberg predicts a 45% chance of a recession in the Eurozone.
The IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 from 2.9% to 2.3%.
High global inflation along with a global decline in GDP leads to a global stagflationary scenario.
The ratio of inflation and GDP in the world economy
US IPO Annual Yield, YoY
There have been 41 IPOs this year, an 82.6% drop from the record-setting last year, when the market surged on Fed cash injections.
Number of US IPOs 2013-July 2022
Total funds raised in the IPO market this year were $4.2 billion—95% less than during the same period last year.
Raised funds during IPO in the USA 2013- July 2022
IPO structure (YTD)
Source: Renaissance Capital.
- The overall commodity market, represented by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) ETF, fell 7.50% in June from 28.80 to 26.64.
- Gold futures (GC) continued to decline by 2.22%, amounting to $187.30 at the end of the month.
- The price of futures for WTI (CL) fell by 7.77% in June from $114.67 to $105.76/bbl.
OPEC has maintained its forecast for the growth of global oil demand in 2022 at 3.4 million barrels p/day.
- Due to the growing fear of a global recession, the non-ferrous metals market also showed the worst dynamics since 2008.
- In June 2022, the FAO Food Price Index* (FPI) averaged 154.2 points, down 3.7 points (2.3%) from May. This decline is observed for the third month in a row, but this figure is still 29.0 points (23.1%) higher than a year ago.