ETF MANAGERS GROUP COMMODITY TR I BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
(NYSE:BDRY)

Ticker: BDRY
Buy: market ($5.03)
Take profit: $8.6

The investment idea is based on the purchase of an exchange fund - Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY). This is the first and only exchange-traded fund tracking contracts for the transportation of exclusively bulk cargo.

Bulk cargo - iron ore, coal, grain and other mineral and agricultural products - is by far the largest cargo segment in the world.

This segment suffered quite a lot due to the closure of factories around the world, and in particular in China, the world's largest consumer of goods. Restrictions were imposed on transport communications, up to the introduction of quarantines, to control the spread of the outbreak of coronavirus. China's exports in February fell by 20.7% year on year.

Since September 2019, BDRY has declined by more than 80% and is at its historic low.

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The current price level is quite attractive for ETF holding with hold until the end of the year.

• We believe that the main negative from a new type of coronavirus is already priced. At the same time, China has created global conditions in the fight against the spread of the virus and at the moment, the percentage of cases of growth in the country is sharply reduced. Key enterprises returned to work with the necessary precautions. Other countries clearly understand the severity of the problem and take appropriate measures to contain the epidemic.
• G7 governments and monetary authorities are taking unprecedented measures to maintain their economies and stimulate domestic demand.
• During the period of the epidemic and quarantines, economic relations are broken, which leads to a reduction in inventories. As soon as the world begins to cope with the threat of the virus and production begins to recover, inventories will need to be replenished. This may create supply shortages in the maritime freight segment. For example, in order to stimulate its economy, China plans huge investments in infrastructure, which will lead to a significant increase in imports of iron ore and coal for steel production.
• The current low demand for sea freight for bulk goods has led to lower freight rates to very painful levels for ship owners. If the crisis continues for a long period, some of the companies (especially holders of old ships) will leave the market, which will reduce supply in this segment.

In addition, from January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization tightened standards by seriously reducing the maximum sulfur content in marine fuel (bunker fuel oil) from 3.5% to 0.5%, which led to the use of low-sulfur fuel, or the installation of scrubbers.

Research by the Swedish company SEB shows that by the beginning of 2020, less than 2,000 vessels out of the total merchant fleet (about 60,000 units) have installed “scrubber” systems. Taking into account the production capacities of existing manufacturers of “scrubbers”, a shortage of finished “scrubbers” is expected in the next few years, which will lead to higher prices for low-sulfur fuel (LSFO) and, consequently, to increased financial costs for shippers.

Summary

We believe that a new type of coronavirus will have a rather negative, but not long-term impact on the global economy. Given the unprecedented incentive measures, we expect the global economy to recover in the second half of 2020. Perhaps a decrease in demand for transported goods will continue to put pressure on the shipping industry for a few more months. But in the medium term, we expect BDRY to return to a value of $8 - $9.

SALMAR ASA
(OSL: SALM)

Ticker: SALM
Buy: market (452 NOK)
Take profit: 520 NOK


SALMAR (OSL: SALM), founded in 1991, is the fourth largest salmon producer in the world. The head office is located on the island of Froya, Norway.

The company owns 59% of Arnarlax Ehf, Iceland's largest salmon farm, and 50% of Norskott Havbruk AS, which owns 100% of Scottish Sea Farms Ltd, the UK's second largest salmon farm.

Statista projected salmon market to grow by 3.7% per year.

Снимок экрана 2020 01 31 в 17.34.08

Source: statista.com 

The one-year Beta is at 0.15, the value of the 5-year Beta is -0.31.

This indicator allows you to judge about the relatively high independence of the asset. Below is a graph of the stock price compared to the SP500 (SPX) and the Oslo Exchange Index (OBX).

tg image 2340850008

Current dividend yield of 5.03% (next dividend payout is June 2020). The company has been steadily increasing dividends over the past 10 years.

Снимок экрана 2020 01 29 в 12.30.36

The Nasdaq Salmon Index shows an increase in the average cost of salmon per kilogram from 40 to 78 kroons per kg in the 4th quarter of 2019, which suggests a positive dynamic of revenue in the upcoming reports.

Снимок экрана 2020 01 29 в 12.57.04 Price / Earnings at 17.7, with an average of 26.5 in the food industry.


Balance Analysis

 - The ratio of borrowed capital to equity decreased from 50.3% to 32.5% over the past 5 years.

 - The company's assets are 2.08 times higher than total liabilities.

 - Intangible assets in the balance sheet structure are less than 27%.

Competitors Analysis

The company has been showing better dividends and maximum profitability for 5 years. At first glance the company's weak point can be considered an overestimation of Price to Book Ratio, however, given the high margin, we can talk about better management efficiency in the industry.


Снимок экрана 2020 01 31 в 17.59.43

Risks

Medium

 - - Salmon price adjustment

 - Reduced yield on farms due to an increase in water temperature and a decrease in flow rate, which leads to active propagation of phytoplankton. The fact is that Phytoplankton adheres to the gills of the fish, which in turn suffocates. Growing on the farm does not allow the fish to swim away from seaweed.

Low

 - Strengthening of the kroon against the dollar (fund currency).

Over the past 10 years, the Norwegian krone has weakened against the dollar, and the difference in interest rates is 0.25%, which does not suggest a strong movement:

 - 1.5% for Krone (was increased from 1.25% in September 2019)
 - 1.75% in US dollars (lowered from 2% in October 2019)

tg image 4112571543

Technical analysis

After a sharp increase from 200 NOK to 520 NOK in 2018, the company's share price corrected by more than 50% and is now in a moderately upward corridor, consolidating ahead of the year-end results. RSI on the daily and weekly charts is in the middle of its range, warning us about possible corrections.

Снимок экрана 2020 01 31 в 15.38.55

Summary

SALMAR is the industry leader in terms of profitability in a growing market and has a low debt burden. In the future 6 months, we expect to see an exit at the level of 520 NOK per share (+ 14% of the current level), while receiving dividends of 5%. The total return for 6 months can be about 19%. This paper will significantly reduce the Beta portfolio and complement diversification by industry.

Closed with Stop-Loss, loss is about 14.04%

BITCOIN
(BITSTAMP:BTCUSD)

Ticker: BTCUSD
Buy: market ($9393)
Take profit: $12000
Stop-Loss: $8400
Updated Stop-Loss: $8100 (08.11.19)

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Bitcoin is a publicly-owned, digital form of currency that uses cryptography (information security algorithms) to send and receive payments securely. Transactions approved through nodes and historically stamped in open-source ledger.

We assume that negative news regarding PayPal, Visa, Stripe and MasterCard exit from Facebook's (NASDAQ: FB) project Libra are already included in the current exchange rate, as well as SEC lawsuit claim on Telegram Open Network. In case of any positive news on the following crypto-projects, the price for Bitcoin is going to appreciate.

In May 2020, the Bitcoin network is going to conduct Halving. After the event, miner's reward for each block will be two times less than today. Instead of 12,5 BTC, all network participants will receive 6,25 BTC. When this occurs, one of two things will happen: miners will simply give up, or they will refuse to sell bitcoins generated at a price below $11,000, what tells us in favour of Bitcoin mid-term investment.

CONTROLLED BITCOIN EMISSION


Reward for generated blocks in the network is cut in half every 210 00 blocks (approximately every four years). This process is called halving.

Reward for generated blocks:
5565565 The block reward halving is a programmed mechanism in the protocol from the very beginning of Bitcoin existence. Halving works as the main characteristic of the Bitcoin economic model; if fewer bitcoins are being generated, the newly increased scarcity automatically makes them more valuable. Halving:

- Supports fair and transparent bitcoin distribution
- Stimulates miners to approve transactions, which leads to enhancement of hash rate in the network
- Saves the economical scarcity principle for native currency (bitcoin) what makes it more attractive for investment goals

Источник: coinlife 

Технический анализ


4267891194

+

Breaking the downturn trend line

Correction from last movement more than 50%

AO is in the positive zone on 1D chard

-

High chance of correction after a fast increase

Bulls are having trouble to gain a foothold higher than $9 500, attempts during Saturday and Sunday (27 and 28 October) led to massive sale from $10 500 and $9 800 levels
 
eng airbnb 1

IPO in 2020
Estimated price for IPO - $169
Minimal purchase- $50 000
Potential profit- от 17,5%

About company

Airbnb is an online service for hosting, searching and short-term rental of private housing around the world.
eng airbnb 2The company was established in August 2008 in San Francisco. Founders: Brian Chesky, Joe Gebbia and Nathan Blecharzik. Today, Airbnb provides access to 7 million unique rental locations in more than 100,000 cities and 200 countries.

Main Investors

According to Crunchbase, since its inception, in total the company has raised $ 4.4 billion in investments from 54 investors. One of the investors was the DST Global fund of Russian entrepreneur Yuri Milner.

airbnb111111222
- The company entered into a partnership with the International Olympic Committee for a period up to 2028.

- The number of advertisements on Airbnb today exceeds the number of the five leading global hotel chains combined, i.e. Airbnb scores higher than industry ratings.

- Airbnb has signed over 400 agreements with the local and national governments and organizations around the world on the automated collection of tourism taxes. Globally, the platform has already collected more than $ 2 billion in tourist tax.

Development of the company

Airbnb acquired 21 organizations, including Urbandoor, HotelTonight, and gaest.com in 2019. The company also teamed up with RXR Realty and made strategic investments in one of the market leaders - Zeus Living and startup rental service Lyric.

airbnb3333333
Airbnb's intellectual property includes 36 registered patents. On top of that, the company has registered 84 trademarks.

Financial performance

Airbnb has impressive growth rates, excellent financial performance in recent periods and is currently profitable, which is a positive factor in evaluating the company.

In 2018, revenue growth was 40% compared to the previous year.

According to the results of the 1st quarter of 2019, direct reservations through the platform amounted to $ 9.4 billion, which is 31% more than in the same period a year earlier.

A huge network advantage will allow the company to further increase its share of the fast-growing market.

eng airbnb 3

Company evaluation

In the last round of fundraising Airbnb was valued at $ 31 billion. * When the company acquired HotelTonight it sold it shares on a private market for the price of $35 billion. **

Derivatives that allow indirect transactions with Airbnb shares have recently been traded at $150 per share of Airbnb, issued as part of the share capital. This implies a premium of $11 billion to the valuation of the company.

The EV / EBITDA multiplier on average for other hotel companies suggests a premium of 14-18, we estimate this multiplier for Airbnb in the range of 25-30. Estimated capitalization at the time of IPO - from $ 50 billion.


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03.12.2019 shares were sold at the price of SL $150. The investment idea brought 2.55% return in 69 days.

VMware
(NYSE: VMW)

Ticker: VMW
Buy: market ($146.19)
Take profit: $185
Stop-Loss: $123
Updated Stop-Loss: $150 (28.10.19). Stop-Loss is shifted to breakeven.

VMware (NYSE: VMW) – American company, the largest softer developer for virtualization, founded in 1998 with Headquarters in Palo-Alto, CA, USA

In a Q2, VMware announced about two major acquisitions:
  • Carbon Black (Nasdaq: CBLK) – cybersecurity field of expertise. Developing could storage solutions aiming to detect unverified activity on the web. Among more than 5000 clients, there are such companies as DocuSign (Nasdaq: DOCU), Evernote, Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE).
  • Pivotal Software (NYSE: PVTL) – the company building infrastructure for the development of scaling software products and applications. Major company’s clients are Boeing (NYSE: BA), Bloomberg, Orange (EPA: ORA), T-Mobile (Nasdaq: TMUS), Ford (NYSE: F).

We assume that such strategic acquisitions will lead to synergetic effect. After integration of the companies VMware clients will be able use a full pack solution for secure virtualization and scaling of software infrastructure. Moreover, VMware will enlarge customer base with some big names in it.

Financial indicators: Q2 2019:

  • During the second quarter VMware performed a $2.44 billion revenue, which is 12% higher comparing with same period last year.
  • Revenue from licence sales was more than $1.1 billion, 12.3% more than last year for the same timeframe.
  • Revenue from services offered was $1.43 billion, 12.1% more than last year for the same timeframe.

Financial statements illustrate revenue increase higher than the market expectations were.

Through our analysis we consider that correction, which was a result from acquisition activity, is finished now. And for the moment company’s stock price will benefit from boosted financial performance.

Technical Analysis



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Correction started in May ’19 was more than 35%, what is deep enough for the renewal of upward trend.

Correction bottomed at $129 p/share – January ’19 levels.

SMMA 100 on the weekly graph suppressed the downfall at $130 p/share

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Correction from the last movements was less than 50%, therefore there is a possibility to go back to the level of $120- $125 p/share.

SMMA 50 indicator on the weekly graph is equal to the current value of the share, which could prevent the upcoming rally.

 


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