Corporate events

Element ONE

Issuer: ELEMENT ONE LTD 
ISIN Number: VGG299771086
Issue Description: USD CL B SHS
ISO CFI: CICXXX

In June 2020 Element ONE Fund showed a negative result -1,97%.

SP500

In June, the US stock market showed almost neutral dynamics, increasing only by 0.47%. During that, the maximum was $3,227; the minimum was $2,988.

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The world demand for the USD also continued to decline in June. In June, the US stock market showed almost neutral dynamics, increasing only by 0.47%. During that, the maximum was $3,227; the minimum was $2,988.

The world demand for the USD also continued to decline in June.
The US Dollar Index Futures was down to 0.93% and closed at 97.35.
The Russian ruble has fallen in price against the dollar.
The USD / RUB currency pair added 1.47%.
The US Dollar Index Futures was down to 0.93% and closed at 97.35.
The Russian ruble has fallen in price against the dollar.
The USD / RUB currency pair added 1.47%.

Labor market

USA, unemployment rate (May): 11,1%

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RUS, unemployment rate (May): 6,1%.

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World trade

IMF: 2020 forecast for world trade is -11.9%.

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The balance sheets of global central banks are collectively just under $22 trillion.

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Oil



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The oil market showed an upward dynamic. The cost of Brent oil rose by 11.53% - from $35.21 to $39.27.

OPEC retained its forecast for a drop in global oil demand in 2020 at 9.1 million barrels per day.

OPEC also retained its forecast for a fall in oil production in the United States in 2020 by 1.13 million – around 11.1 million barrels per day.

Russia: oil production from June 1st to June 28th = 8.52 million barrels per day (quota - 8.49 million).

Norway has no plans to cut oil production

Sanctions

• The United States announced new sanctions against Syria.
• Trump signed into law sanctions against Chinese officials for actions against Hong Kong; China plans countermeasures.
• The European Union has extended the sanctions on Crimea for another year.

Trade wars

• US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin does not rule out a complete break in economic relations with China.
• The US is imposing tariffs on aluminum from Canada.
• India plans to introduce tariffs on Chinese goods.
• The United States has tightened restrictions on technology exports to Russia.

Geopolitics

• Yemen army reports a massive attack on Saudi Arabia.
• Russia continues to strengthen the western grouping of forces in response to the fact that NATO countries are strengthening their air defense and missile defense systems.
• China is deploying troops to the border with India. In Delhi, soldiers were allowed to shoot the Chinese to kill.

Crisis

The Fed continues to print money to save the stock market. Trump approves the introduction of a new package of support for the US economy, which could go to Congress in July.
The Fed plans to expand its credit program for non-profit organizations.
Since the beginning of 2020, large companies in the United States have filed 111 bankruptcy claims.
Morgan Stanley: The US federal budget is facing the highest deficit since 1943.

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JPMorgan: The current recession is the deepest and shortest in 100 years.

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Comments from the officials

• Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman:
1) huge uncertainty about the speed of economic recovery;
2) we will use all the tools to save the economy;
3) low rates will persist for an extended period.

• Donald Trump, President of the United States:
There should be negative rates in the United States.

• Larry Kudlow, White House Economic Advisor:
All indicators speak of a V-shaped US economic recovery.

Gold

In June, the price of gold increased by 2.90% - from $1,749.8 to $1,800.5.

691The overall commodity market, represented by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (ETF), rose by 4.94%, from 11.73 to 12.31.

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COVID-19

In June, the number of infections increased worldwide as restrictions were lifted.

The head of WHO: the worst is yet to come, the global growth of infections is accelerating, we expect a vaccine by the end of 2021.

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Element ONE Fund

In June, public ideas of the fund analysts showed excellent returns.

On June 3, with a result of 30.67%, the shares of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE: QSR) were partially sold.

On June 5,Disney (NYSE:DIS) shares reached a target price of $125. The final result was 23.76%

On June 5, after the stop loss was set at NOK 450,Salmar (OSL: SALM). shares were liquidated. The yield was + 0.65%. 

At the end of the month, the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping (NYSE:BDRY) exchange-traded fund for freight showed a result of more than + 46%, third of the positions were closed. 

The positive results allowed our team to rise on the invest-idei.ru analyst rating. Raison Asset Management is tied for 5th place with Amaday by Raison.

Despite the excellent performance of individual ideas and public trading, the fund's shares showed negative dynamics in June, closing the month at $1,605.03, losing 1.97%.
We are worried about the increase in the total number of infected with COVID-19 and are actively hedging positions, as we believe that even the first wave of the pandemic is not over yet. In the current conditions of increased volatility, the cost of risk reduction is quite high, which affects the final profitability.

Element ONE

Issuer: ELEMENT ONE LTD
ISIN Number: VGG299771086
Issue Description: USD CL B SHS
ISO CFI: CICXXX

In May 2020 Element ONE Fund has grown +6.79%.

SP500

In May, optimistic mood prevailed in the markets against the backdrop of the incentive measures taken and the gradual release from quarantine. The SP500 index continued to grow, rising 6.35%. At the end of the month, the price of the index was $3061 - this corresponds to the level of November 1st, 2019. The index without correction rose from the March low, showing a V-shaped recovery.

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Global demand for the dollar in May continued to decline. The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.8% and closed at $98.34.

The Russian Ruble strengthened. The USD/RUB currency pair decreased by 5.70%.

Central Bank Rates:

Fed: 0.25% (PRE 0 - 0.25%). At the meeting on 10.06.2020, the regulator left the key rate unchanged. ECB: 0% (PRED 0 - 0%). The next meeting was on July 16, 2020. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation: 5.50% (PRED 6%). The Central Bank of the Russian Federation admits a reduction of the key rate at the next meetings. Next meeting 06/19/2020

GDP

USA (q/q): -5%.
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Eurozone (q/q): -3,6%.
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Labour market

USA, unemployment rate (May): 13,3%.

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Russia, unemployment rate (May): 5,8%.

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Crisis

• Japan approved a $1.1 trillion economic support package;
• The EU plans to create a €300 billion bankruptcy protection fund for companies;
• The authorities of the Russian Federation are preparing a package of economic support of 8 trillion rubles;

Wars

• Trade wars are on the escalation stage. The United States may introduce new duties on goods from China, but Trump does not plan to exit phase 1 on a trade deal. On top of that, the United States does not plan to accept the new status of Hong Kong. China, in turn, is considering the possibility of trade diversification due to unfriendly US behavior.
• The US plans to end all relations with the WHO.

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World trade is setting anti-records.

Oil

5re7The oil market showed strong growth, increasing by 86.24% - from $19.04 to $35.46.

5re8World oil reserves (including oil in transit) began to decline.

Gold

5re9In May, the price of yellow metal rose 3.44%, rising from $1,693.5 to $1,751.7.

The total commodity market, represented by the ETF DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund), grew by 8.97%, increasing from 10.81 to 11.78.
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Comments from officials

• Powell: the current balance of the Fed is not dangerous (recall, in May, the balance exceeded $7 trillion).
• Williams: measures taken by world Central Banks helped. Need more fiscal stimulation.
• Bullard (Fed): longer quarantine restrictions can cause long-term and deep damage to the US economy.
• Kudlow: we see many signs of economic recovery, Q3 2020 may show the fastest growth in US GDP in history.
• SI: China will increase readiness for military clashes.
• Kuroda: The Central Bank of Japan is ready to mitigate monetary policy in all possible ways: to reduce the rate, increase the purchase of ETFs, increase lending programs, and come up with new support measures.
• Merkel: sanctions against the Russian Federation must be respected.

Change in portfolio positions

The value of the fund's stock increased by $104.17 (+ 6.79%) and amounted to $ 1637.35. In May, we added VEON LTD (NASDAQ: VEON) at a price of 1.53 to the portfolio of a communications company, mainly operating under the brand Beeline. In the near future, we will publish a review of the company on our website. Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) showed positive dynamics in May and closed in early June with a result of + 23.76% and + 30.67%. In addition, on June 5th, with a small increase, a position was closed on the shares of Salmar (OSL:SALM). The company canceled the payment of dividends in March this year, which forced us to revise the prospects of profitability for this asset.
Dear shareholders of the RAM Data Technologies Investment Fund, in connection with the procedure of changing the legal structure, the asset management company is switching to the e-mail reporting format. Starting from July 1, 2020 until the 15th of each month, you will be provided with reports on the Fund's performance. Due to the cancellation of the management fee, the net asset value will no longer be calculated. An explanation letter was sent to all investors by personal email on May 26, 2020. If you haven't received an email, please contact your personal manager.

Element ONE


Issuer: ELEMENT ONE LTD 
ISIN Number: VGG299771086
Issue Description: USD CL B SHS
ISO CFI: CICXXX

Element ONE Fund in April 2020 showed a result of -5.77%.

SP500

In April, the SP500 index showed an upward trend after a deep fall in February - March and grew by 13.36%. At the end of the month, the price of the index was $2906, near its monthly maximum. The growth took place against the backdrop of unprecedented incentive measures taken by the US government: in April, Donald Trump signed into law on a new $500 billion support package.

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Global demand for the USD is gradually declining. The US Dollar Index Futures is trading at $ 100.The rates of the central banks of the United States and the ECB are at near zero levels and are likely to remain so for a long time to come.

Fed: 0.25% (PRE 0 - 0.25%)
ECB: 0% (PRE 0 - 0%)
CBR: 5.50% (PRED 6%).

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation may reduce the key rate to 5% in the summer.

Despite all efforts, the situation in the real sector is difficult. Everywhere there is high unemployment, a drop in industrial production and a decline in world trade. All countries' PMIs are critically low.

The US unemployment rate in April was 14.7%.

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US unemployment forecast:

• 2 kV. 2020 G. = 14%;
• 3 kV. 2020 G. = 16%.

The UN predicts a reduction of 195 million jobs due to COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter. 2020 in the world.

US GDP for the first quarter of 2020 amounted to -4.8%.

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US GDP Forecast:

• 2 kV. 2020 G. = -39.6%;
• 2020 G. = -5.6%.

Key Comments in April


The head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell:

• The Fed has an unlimited amount of money.
• The level of debt makes you worry, but not now - not during a pandemic.
• We will never run out of money.

WHO head Tedros Gebreyesus: “The pandemic is far from over.”

US and China Trade War

The US is considering new restrictions on the export of goods from China. In addition, the United States is investigating the source of the distribution of COVID-19 and trying to blame China. If the United States succeeds in providing evidence of these investigations, it will have an extremely negative impact on current agreements between the countries.

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Brent brand oil

In April, a historic event took place in the oil market. Against the background of high levels of world reserves and weak oil demand, WTI futures before expiration went far into the negative zone.

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The price of Brent fell to $ 15.99 per barrel, but then recovered. The total decrease over the month was 2.77%.

Gold

Amid a pandemic, a slowdown in the global economy and rampant printing of money, gold is still in demand as a protective asset.

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In April, gold continued to grow from $ 1,589 to $ 1,694, thereby adding 6.59% to the price. The maximum in the moment reached $ 1788.

The general commodity market, represented by the DBC ETF (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) showed a neutral trend, falling 1.89% from 11.11 to 10.90.

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COVID-19

The graphs show that in most countries the peak of infections has already been passed.

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Change in portfolio positions

A positive result was not achieved in April. The stock price decreased by $ 93.36 (-5.57%) and amounted to $ 1524.04.

USO is the largest ETF in the oil sector, tracking the dynamics of oil.

The fund closed with a fall of more than 40%, despite the fact that ETF is shifted to the futures of the next month 2 weeks before the expiration of the current one. In other words, the USO had no position during the fall of the May futures in the negative zone. However, the NAV fund has been hit hard by the June futures drawdown. At the moment, the USO has made changes to the investment strategy and distributed the positions as follows:

Commodity Interests Target Weight*
WTI CRUDE OIL Jul20 15%
WTI CRUDE OIL Aug20 15%
WTI CRUDE OIL Sep20 15%
WTI CRUDE OIL Oct20 15%
WTI CRUDE OIL Nov20 5%
WTI CRUDE OIL Dec20 25%
WTI CRUDE OIL Jun21 10%

The new structure will be much less correlated with the current oil price, however, it will continue to be an indicator of the oil market as a whole.

In addition, the freight index (BDRY), which at the moment shows a yield of more than 50% per position, closed with a result of -13% for the month.

Disney shares added more than 4%.

QSR, after buying on April 22 at $ 45, rose to $ 49.3, showing a result of more than 9% per week.
Dear customers!

Please consider that our Financial Institution will be closed on the following days due to upcoming state holidays:

01.05.2020 - 05.05.2020 - non-working days;

09.05.2020 - 11.05.2020 - non-working days.

All NAV calculations will be provided not later than 15th of May 2020.