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Element ONE results. November

Element ONE 
Issuer: ELEMENT ONE LTD  
ISIN Number: VGG299771086 
IssueDescription: USD CL B SHS 
ISO CFI: CICXXX

In November 2020 Element ONE Fund showed a result of + 3.71%.

S&P 500

In November, the S&P500 rose by 11.14%, increasing from 3260 to 3623.25. Additionally, this month, another maximum of 3668 was recorded. The drivers of this growth were triggers such as the market’s expectations for a fourth aid package for $900 billion, early final data on vaccines, and the lifting of restrictions.

Against the backdrop of continuing super-soft monetary policy, the dollar index fell by 2.38% in November. The index value at the end of the month was 91.86.

The Russian ruble strengthened against the US currency by 4.04%, closing the month at 76.395 ₽ / $.

Central bank rates

FRS: 0,25% (prev. 0–0,25%)

ECB: 0% (prev. 0–0%)

RCB: 4,25% (prev. 4,25%)

Labor market

USA, unemployment rate: 6,7% (prev. 6,8%)
RUS, unemployment rate: 6,3% (prev. 6,3%)
Eurozone, unemployment rate: 8,4% (prev. 8,5%)
China, unemployment rate: 5,3% (prev. 5,4%)

Employment by region

Crisis

Powell:

  • We will use all the Fed’s tools to survive this period;
  • More fiscal support may be needed.

Institute of International Finance (IIF):

  • World debt by the end of the year will reach a record $277 trillion, or 365% of world GDP;
  • Total US debt will reach $80 trillion in 2020, up from $71 trillion in 2019;

The IMF provided more than $100 million in new financing to 82 countries during the crisis and is looking to do more.

Russia

Central Bank:

  • Russia’s GDP from a 3.6% decline in Q3 2020 may accelerate to 5% in Q4 2020;
  • The RCB does not include hard lockdown scenarios in its baseline forecast;
  • The pause in the recovery of the global and Russian economies will last until the spring of 2021, and then it will continue.
  • Soft monetary policy will remain throughout 2021, a transition to neutral in 2022;
  • Possible further rate cuts.

The State Duma of the Russian Federation approved a deficit budget for 2021-2023:

  • Growth in budget revenues of the Russian Federation from 18.765 trillion rubles in 2021 to 20.637 trillion in 2022 and 22.263 trillion in 2023;
  • Expenditure growth – from 21.52 trillion rubles in 2021 to 21.884 trillion in 2022 and to 23.671 trillion in 2023;
  • The result is a deficit of 2.4% of GDP in 2021, 1% of GDP in 2022, and 1.1% of GDP in 2023.

Sanctions

  • The Trump administration is preparing new sanctions against Russia: The Ministry of Defense, the aviation industry, the rocket and space industry, the nuclear industry;
  • On January 11, 2021, the United States enters into force a law prohibiting US citizens and companies from trading in the securities of Chinese companies associated with the Chinese armed forces.

Oil

The oil market showed good growth in November. The cost of the WTI brand rose by 28.66% – from $35.24 to $45.34.

  • International Energy Agency (IEA): downgraded the forecast for global oil demand in 2021 and expects a decrease by 8.8 million BPD;

OPEC predicts a slowdown in the recovery in oil demand in 2021

Reserves

Gold

At the end of the month, the price of the yellow metal fell by 5.12% from $1877 to $1780.9


COVID-19

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Это изображение имеет пустой атрибут alt
Это изображение имеет пустой атрибут alt

Element ONE Fund

In October, the Element ONE fund showed a result of + 3.71%. At the end of October, we entered a long position in the Chinese auto company Li Auto. The company’s quotes increased by 30.22% and on November 4, we closed the Take Profit target. More details can be found at https://invest-idei.ru/idea/li-auto-inc-intellektualnyy-elektrokar-3128. Raison Asset Management in November was on the 3rd line of the independent rating of analysts invest-idei.ru. The fund’s shares are valued at $1,778.8 in October.